Segun Atanda/
Iran is moving to appoint a new supreme leader following the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, even as Israel warns it will target whoever is selected to succeed him and political divisions in Washington fail to halt the expanding US-Israeli air campaign against Tehran.
The crisis deepened early on Thursday when Iran launched a fresh barrage of missiles towards Israel, triggering air raid sirens across major cities and sending millions of residents into bomb shelters.
The strike came as the conflict entered its sixth day and only hours after the US Senate blocked an attempt to restrain the American military campaign against Iran.
Iran’s leadership succession has become the central question in Tehran after Khamenei, 86, was killed in an Israeli strike on Saturday, marking the first time a nation’s top ruler has been assassinated in an air attack in modern times.
Under Iran’s constitution, the task of choosing a new supreme leader falls to the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member clerical body. Officials say the assembly has already identified potential candidates and could announce a decision soon.
The move would represent only the second leadership transition since the Islamic Republic was established in 1979.
Among the names circulating in Iranian political circles is Mojtaba Khamenei, the powerful son of the slain leader.
Long viewed as a behind-the-scenes power broker within Iran’s security establishment, Mojtaba has emerged as a possible frontrunner despite criticism from some clerics who oppose what they view as a dynastic succession.
Another potential candidate is Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic. Hassan Khomeini is associated with Iran’s reformist camp and has historically been sidelined by the conservative establishment, though some analysts believe his selection could signal a shift in Tehran’s political direction.
However, the succession process is unfolding under extraordinary military pressure.
Israeli officials have openly declared that whoever replaces Khamenei will also become a target.
Israeli authorities say the campaign is aimed at dismantling Iran’s leadership and command structure as part of the wider war now involving both Israel and the United States.
Analysts warn that such threats could further complicate Iran’s internal deliberations and potentially delay a formal announcement.
Iran has already postponed planned funeral ceremonies for Khamenei, citing security concerns.
The body had been expected to lie in state in Tehran earlier this week, but officials announced that the three-day national mourning programme would be delayed indefinitely.
Two Iranian sources told Reuters that Mojtaba Khamenei was not in Tehran when his father was killed, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the succession process.
While Tehran grapples with its leadership crisis, the war has continued to widen across the region.
On Wednesday, a US submarine sank an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka, killing at least 80 people.
NATO air defences also intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile that had been fired in the direction of Turkey, marking the first time the conflict has directly involved a NATO member bordering Iran.
Despite the escalation, US Defence Secretary, Pete Hegseth, said there was no indication that the missile incident would trigger NATO’s collective defence clause.
The war has also severely disrupted global energy routes. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor for Middle Eastern oil and gas exports, remains largely paralysed.
According to estimates compiled by Reuters, around 200 ships are currently anchored near the strait as insurers and shipping companies assess the risks of operating in the conflict zone.
US Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, said the United States Navy would eventually escort commercial tankers through the strait, but added that the military’s immediate priority was the war itself.
“Our Navy and our military are focused on disarming this Iranian regime,” Wright said in a television interview.
Financial markets have reacted nervously to the crisis. Oil prices have surged in recent days, although Asian and US stock markets recovered somewhat on Wednesday amid tentative hopes that the conflict might not escalate further.
Those hopes were briefly fuelled by reports that Iranian intelligence officials had attempted to reach out to the CIA about a potential path towards ending the war. Tehran quickly dismissed the report as “psychological warfare”.
The conflict is already testing global economic stability, according to International Monetary Fund Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva.
“If proven to be prolonged, this conflict has obvious potential to affect global energy prices, market sentiment, growth and inflation,” she said during an event in Bangkok.
Even as the war intensifies abroad, political efforts to restrain the US military campaign faltered in Washington.
Republican senators on Wednesday blocked a Democratic-backed measure that sought to halt the US air campaign against Iran unless Congress formally authorised the use of military force.
The Senate voted 53 to 47 against advancing the resolution, largely along party lines. All but one Republican opposed the motion, while all but one Democrat supported it.
The measure would have required explicit congressional approval for continued US military operations, but its failure effectively leaves President Donald Trump free to continue directing the air campaign alongside Israel.
The vote underscores strong Republican backing for the administration’s war strategy even as the conflict expands across the Middle East.
Meanwhile, governments around the world are scrambling to evacuate citizens from the region.
Repatriation flights began departing several Middle Eastern countries on Wednesday as tens of thousands of travellers found themselves stranded due to widespread airspace closures.
Commercial aviation remains heavily disrupted, with major regional hubs including Dubai experiencing severe flight reductions.
A British evacuation flight scheduled to depart from Oman on Wednesday was postponed and is now expected to leave later on Thursday, according to media reports.
With the war widening, Iran’s leadership transition has become one of the most consequential political decisions in the country’s history. Whoever emerges as supreme leader will inherit not only the authority over the Islamic Republic’s powerful military and security apparatus but also an active war with Israel and the United States.
Israeli officials have made clear that such authority may also come with a deadly target on the new leader’s back.
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