Segun Atanda/
Nigeria’s foreign exchange unification drive is facing renewed scrutiny after the Nigeria Customs Service exchange rate rose above both the official and parallel market rates, prompting warnings of a creeping return to multiple FX regimes and growing policy credibility concerns.
In a post shared on Thursday, seasoned financial expert, Yinka Ogunnubi, cited exchange rate figures from February 4, 2026 showing the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) rate at N1,358.28 to the dollar, the Customs FX rate at N1,451.63, and the parallel market rate at about N1,440.
“In a clean system, the Customs FX rate should track the official window, perhaps with a small lag, not overshoot the parallel market,” Ogunnubi wrote. “Yet here, Customs is 6.9 per cent above NFEM and N12 above the parallel.”
He argued that the spread was unlikely to be accidental and pointed to deeper structural and policy issues.
“When Customs prices FX above both NFEM and the parallel market, it’s quietly admitting two things,” he said. “It doesn’t trust the official rate to hold and importers are sourcing, or will ultimately source, FX at worse-than-NFEM prices.”
According to Ogunnubi, the approach shifts risk from the state to businesses. “So Customs hedges. Revenue is protected. Importers carry the risk,” he noted.
He warned that the development effectively creates a de facto third exchange rate, undermining official claims of FX unification.
“Even if unintentionally, we now have NFEM for some transactions, the parallel market for others, and the Customs FX rate as a third, punitive benchmark,” he said. “This undermines the entire narrative of FX unification.”
Ogunnubi also cautioned that the higher Customs rate would lock in imported inflation.
“A higher Customs rate means higher landed costs, a higher VAT base and higher working capital needs,” he said, adding that even if parallel market rates softened, prices were unlikely to adjust downward because “Customs has already locked in a higher cost base”.
He noted that the effect would be most severe for manufacturing inputs, fast-moving consumer goods and capital equipment, sectors already facing tight margins and elevated financing costs.
Perhaps most damaging, Ogunnubi said, was the signal being sent to investors and traders.
“FX policy is not just about rates, it’s about who believes which rate,” he wrote. “When a core government agency prices FX above the market, it tells investors that the state itself does not fully believe the official FX narrative.”
Responding, Proshare, a leading financial intelligence platform, said the issue reflected a deeper coordination failure within government.
“You raised valid points and laid them out well,” Proshare said. “The Customs rate premium is a credibility issue. When a revenue agency prices above the market, it is effectively publishing its own FX stress test in real time, signalling something different from what the monetary authority is signalling.”
Proshare warned that such divergence historically precedes the re-emergence of multiple exchange rate regimes.
“When different arms of government operate with incompatible FX assumptions, it shows a fragmented policy environment,” it said. “This is precisely how multiple FX regimes begin, if history is any guide.”
The platform further described the Customs FX rate as a form of state-enforced price discrimination and a hidden tax that disproportionately affects domestic manufacturers dependent on imported inputs, while offering limited protection to local industry.
“The government, through what should be a trade facilitation agency but is now a revenue-generating agency, is telling the market the rate it believes,” Proshare concluded. “And it is not the official rate.”
The exchange has intensified debate over Nigeria’s FX management at a time when authorities continue to stress their commitment to a unified, market-driven exchange rate system.
Analysts warn that unless gaps between policy pronouncements and agency practice are addressed, confidence in FX reforms may weaken further.
0Related posts:
How to Effectively Manage Naira to Dollar Exchange Rate, By Bode Agusto
Woman Tackles Customs over N175k Duty Charge on Bag and Pair of Shoes at Abuja Airport
Interrogating Two Years of Nigeria’s Foreign Policy Under President Tinubu
FG Moves to Stop Estimated Electricity Billings as Strike Looms, Says Nigerians Will Pay Less for Fuel
𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐊𝐏𝐌𝐆: 𝐎𝐛𝐬𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐨𝐧 𝐍𝐢𝐠𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐚’𝐬 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐓𝐚𝐱 𝐋𝐚𝐰𝐬
Why We Are Borrowing, FG Explains as Minister Presents Buhari’s 2019 Scorecard *Says There’s No Cause for Alarm