Jair BolsonaroPresident Jair Bolsonaro

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Brazil’s former President Jair Bolsonaro has been found guilty of attempting to overturn the country’s 2022 election, in a conspiracy prosecutors say went as far as plotting the assassination of then president-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The verdict marks an extraordinary moment in Brazil’s democratic history, placing Bolsonaro in the same troubled lineage as his political rival and successor, Lula, who himself once served time behind bars.

The ruling by a Brazilian federal court concluded that Bolsonaro spearheaded a desperate attempt to cling to power after losing the 2022 presidential contest. Prosecutors alleged that his plan involved inciting military intervention, undermining trust in the electoral system, and even considering violent measures against Lula, who was due to return to the presidency in January 2023.

While sentencing details are still unfolding, the judgment effectively cements Bolsonaro’s fall from grace after years of populist leadership that polarized Brazil and mirrored global far-right movements.

The irony of Bolsonaro’s conviction is not lost on Brazilians. His successor, Lula da Silva, was himself jailed in 2018 on corruption and money-laundering charges stemming from the Operation Car Wash investigation. Lula’s conviction, handed down by then-judge Sergio Moro, removed him from the 2018 presidential race and cleared the way for Bolsonaro’s eventual rise to power.

However, in 2021, Brazil’s Supreme Court annulled Lula’s convictions, ruling that Moro acted with bias. The decision restored Lula’s political rights, enabling his dramatic comeback victory over Bolsonaro in 2022.

Brazil’s political history has often swung between moments of democratic resilience and institutional crisis. Bolsonaro’s conviction now places him alongside Lula as yet another president whose career has been defined by both high office and time in the dock.

While Lula rebuilt his reputation as a champion of the poor and democratic institutions, Bolsonaro may struggle to do the same. Analysts note that the former army captain’s uncompromising rhetoric and divisive tactics could make rehabilitation difficult, even among his once-loyal conservative base.

The verdict sends a strong message about accountability in Brazil’s fragile democracy, one still haunted by memories of military rule. For Lula, the outcome reinforces his legitimacy as a survivor of political persecution. For Bolsonaro, it signals the closing of a chapter that began with promises of rooting out corruption but ended with him condemned for undermining democracy itself.

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