Segun Atanda/
A fresh controversy has emerged in Nigeria’s political space following a claim by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar that the South has governed the country for 18 years while the North has held power for only 10.
But a detailed historical analysis credited to Okoi Ofem Obono-Obla, a Nigerian lawyer, politician, and former Chairman of the Special Presidential Investigation Panel for the Recovery of Public Property (SPIP), is challenging that narrative, offering a more expansive view of Nigeria’s leadership trajectory since independence, one that suggests a markedly longer period of northern dominance.
From the very dawn of independence in 1960, Nigeria’s leadership structure carried a delicate regional balance, at least in form. While Nnamdi Azikiwe of the South held the largely ceremonial office of Governor-General and later President, real executive authority resided with Prime Minister Abubakar Tafawa Balewa of the North. That early configuration set the tone for a pattern that would become more pronounced in the decades that followed.
The brief interruption of northern leadership came with the January 1966 coup, which brought Major General Johnson Aguiyi-Ironsi to power. His tenure, however, lasted only six months before a counter-coup ushered in Lieutenant Colonel Yakubu Gowon, marking the beginning of an extended era of northern military dominance.
Through successive regimes, those of Murtala Mohammed, Muhammadu Buhari in his military capacity, Ibrahim Babangida, and later Sani Abacha, power remained firmly rooted in the North. Even transitional leadership under Abdulsalami Abubakar did little to alter that regional pattern before the return to civilian rule in 1999.
Democracy, when it came, appeared at first to rebalance the equation. Olusegun Obasanjo of the South governed for two consecutive terms, followed by Umaru Musa Yar’Adua from the North. His untimely death paved the way for Goodluck Jonathan, restoring southern leadership briefly.
Yet the pendulum swung again in 2015 with the election of Muhammadu Buhari as a civilian president, returning power to the North for another eight-year stretch. The current administration of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, which began in 2023, has once again shifted leadership to the South, but not sufficiently to overturn the historical imbalance outlined in Obono-Obla’s analysis.
According to the breakdown, northern leaders have governed Nigeria for approximately 38 years, compared to about 20 years for their southern counterparts, a stark contrast to the claim attributed to Atiku.
Beyond the numbers, the debate underscores a deeper tension within Nigeria’s political architecture: the enduring sensitivity around regional power rotation and perceptions of equity. In a country where history often shapes political expectations, the accuracy of such claims is not merely academic, it is consequential.
By revisiting the full arc of Nigeria’s leadership history, Okoi Obono-Obla’s intervention reframes the conversation, urging a return to verifiable records in a discourse too often driven by rhetoric. As political actors position themselves ahead of future contests, the question may no longer be who has held power, but how honestly that history is told.
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